If I had a nice shot of a Japanese funeral, I would have put it here with the caption “RIP Japan”. Ten years in Japan and I’ve never been so disgusted at the crooks, fools, now drunks that claim to be leading the country.
Everyone has seen the coverage our ex-Finance Minister, Shoichi “Lemsip” Nakagawa. Justin McCurry of the Guardian newspaper had a great story.
You’ve got to wonder how much more the Japanese public can take? The last Prime Minster to be actually chosen by the people was Junichiro Koizumi back in 2005. Two other unelected failures have come and gone since, and Aso now has an approval rating of less than 10%.
I saw Koizumi in the flesh for the first time last week at the gastronomy summit. He was looking pretty pensive most of the time – plotting Aso’s downfall one hopes.
There have been rumours of a Koizumi comeback for a while. But I hope he has got more sense. Saving the LDP once (back in 2005) was once more than Japan needed.
Thinking about the risible economic and politcal situation in Japan though I was reminded of something Alex Kerr wrote in the final chapter of Dogs and Demons in 2001:
“At the turn of the century, hopes for the future [of Japan] remain balanced between revolution and stagnation. Stagnation is most likely in the absence of a major shock to the system, such as a wholesale economic crash. But revolution could happen. . . .
Sadly for Japan, a crash is highly unlikely. The chances are that for the next decade or two there will never come a moment when the nation stare’s disaster right in the face.”
Maybe we are staring disaster in the face? We’ve certainly had stagnation, and now here’s the wholesale economic crash.
Where’s the revolution?
Viva la revolucion!!
Be careful what you wish for. These tossers may be incompetent wastes of space, but imagine what would happen if you had a photogenic efficient evil so and so
I agree that the credibility of the political leadership has hit a new low and Kerr’s point about a crisis being needed force the issue seems correct. Japan has had periods of popular uprising, and more recently than people think (e.g., against SOFA in the early 60′s).
So, take the next step and what might happen in the case of a true governing crisis and a popular repudiation of the status quo?
If Koizumi doesn’t rescue the LDP (I agree, a bad outcome, just more of the same again.) Then, what might be next? Koizumi leading some non-LDP new centrist party of elements from LDP and DPJ? (I’m thinking something like Israel’s Kadima party.)
Other options, if the current crop were truly swept out, who would fill the void? I suspect a revolution/major realignment would come from the right, not the left. Ascendant populist nationalism wouldn’t be any treat either. Call me a pessimist.
Oh, and nice shot of K’s smile there.
MJG: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzZ6GsSpsUQ
ourmaninabiko: not to many photogenic politicians in Japan, luckily :) (but serious point taken)
Ted: intriguing point about Koizumi and some new party. I guess there is a chance change might come from the right, but bear in mind that 2 of the 3 discredited PMs (Abe and Aso) have been right-wing “bochan”.
I don’t really think Koizumi could, or even wants to , pull off a Kadima-style, but it would be interesting and better than returning through the LDP.
As far as right, I guess I meant “really right-wing”. The various ultra-nationalist groups set up shop in front of my station with speakers from time-to-time. I don’t think they could actually govern, but a swing further to the right could happen. Fear will do that sometimes, but I do hope not.
I’m just talking here, and don’t know enough specifics, but I have a hard time picturing a populist left coming in to clean house.
It’s obvious that a major system overhaul will come only after the system completely crashes, resulting in disaster. Unfortunately, revolutionaries (who they are is anyone’s guess) can only start the revolution by hastening such a crash. Trying to change minds is a waste of time given how slow anything is to change around here.
Billywest: was only thinking of a relatively revolutionary revolution really.
I give Aso to April then he will be purged at some low ebb of popularity and, completely misreading the reality of his grip on power and the LDP`s collective fear of losing that grip will call a snap election, as Koizumi did for Postal privatisation; lose spectacularly and let in the DPJ who will (due to lack of practice at least as much the fact that they are basically the same bunch of imagination-free, self-interest stoking, out-of touch, upper-class old men as the LDP -many of whom were once LDP members) screw it up in two years. Then the population, who don`t really know what to do with the democracy they have been given, will run back to the LDP, chasened and scared, promising never to leave for the wilderness of political change again.
What I feel though is that the LDP will be improved by the pause in its power, an Obama moment will need to be found: a new face and voice that speaks more honestly and with greater respect to the people who will have a sudden understanding that the people they vote for (have always voted for and will always vote for probably) are at the end accountable to them. The LDP next time round will be younger, less cock-sure and maybe a better party and as the “scared of change” electorate die off the mix and swap of real choice between parties will develop and we may actually get a real democracy where power does not have time to corrupt and grow as desperate as it has been allowed to do here for the last 50 years.
Just my 2 yen`s worth.
Damon
I have heard this theory of Koizumi’s return from a few sources now, and it seems to me that at face value it might seem like a way for the LDP to gain some votes. But is Koizumi really that popular these days? Can the root of some of the problems facing Japan today be traced back to the Koizumi era???
I don’t want to get all pessimistic, but when politicians lose the respect of the people and the armed forces, bad things happen. Healthy nationalism is good for a country; the type of unhealthy, inward-looking nationalism we had with the Bush administration and that we have with Putin is dangerous because the idiots who subscribe to it will never admit they’re wrong until it’s too late. Getting back to Japan … Anyone notice the Gen. Tamogami DVDs in their local bookstore? Right there at the front counter, folks.
Koizumi intended to destroy the LDP in order to save it. He failed to complete the job, and we’re paying for that now. Let’s hope there’s a core group of politicians with the guts and balls to take on the bureaucracy, eliminate the shadow budget and put this country on a new track.